John Warhurst | It's been 25 years since my first column, and I'm not sure anything has changed in federal politics

Historical perspectives are a useful reminder though. My own perspective, in my final appearance after 25 years as a weekly columnist for The Canberra Times, goes back to the contest between Howard and Kim Beazley. Both men, especially Howard, are still active in national politics demonstrating the resilience and stability built into our political system.

1998 was a big year. The Republican Constitutional Convention that February was the precursor of the referendum in November 1999. Now we are rapidly approaching the first referendum since then. It has taken our system 25 years to recover from that defeat and to believe again in the possibilities offered by constitutional change.

Republican-monarchist divisions within the Coalition hastened the retirement of the then-Nationals' leader Tim Fischer. Within the Liberals those same divisions, represented by Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull - who both became prime minister - dominated the next two decades. The philosophical differences they represent are worse now than they were then. Disunity has plunged the Liberal Party close to an abyss.

My first column in May 1998 was about the Australian Democrats. They are now history, but the Senate, with different parties and independents, is just as central to policy outcomes.

Albanese was a newcomer then, entering parliament two years earlier. He would have had high hopes of Labor quickly returning to office, as the new Howard government was struggling. But in October 1998, despite losing the popular vote and 14 seats, Howard survived to win the second of four elections before his eventual defeat in 2007. Both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, the new prime minister and deputy prime minister, both elected in 1998, had advanced more quickly through the Labor ranks than Albanese. He would have to wait almost 25 years for his turn at the helm.

Howard negotiated major tax reform in form of the GST through the Parliament by gaining the agreement of the Democrats, led by Meg Lees. The Democrats descended into turmoil. Their former leader, Cheryl Kernot, had resigned from the Senate in 1997, unable to work with Howard and in 1998 returned to parliament briefly as the member for Griffith. Her successor there was none other than Peter Dutton.

Tasmanian senator Brian Harradine refused on principle to support the GST. Harradine too has long departed, but the independent tradition in Tasmania lives on in Jacqui Lambie and her sidekick, Tammy Tyrell. The Democrats did negotiate a GST deal and never recovered from it. Their fate was a warning to all minor parties of the dangers in aligning themselves too closely with the government. The party split, its members were white-hot with anger, and it faded away to be replaced as the third party by the Greens.

Since then, the search for the centre in Australian politics, filled for a while by Nick Xenophon, has never had a settled standard bearer. Perhaps the teal independents have filled that void. The major parties are weaker than ever, now speaking for only two-thirds of voters.

The Greens, assuming the stable position the Democrats once aspired too, won't dis-establish the two-party system on their own, but together with independents of all colours they just might. Younger Australians are seeking a "new" politics that the major parties struggle to deliver.

In this year of the Indigenous Voice referendum, we kid ourselves if we think the style of our politics is any better than it was at the turn of the century. But despite the polarisation and division evident all around us, I'm not sure our politics is any worse either.

MORE JOHN WARHURST:

The late 1990s saw the birth of the One Nation party, central to division over race and immigration ever since. Hanson was elected to the House of Representatives as an independent in 1996, only to lose her seat in 1998. She has been Senator Pauline Hanson from Queensland since 2016.

Political campaigns are too often a mish-mash of misrepresentation, exaggeration and lies built on a kernel of truth. Too often democratic politics is undermined by the power of money and manipulation by insiders and lobbyists. The concentration of traditional media power is unabated, but the media itself has become fragmented.

There are nevertheless clear reasons for optimism. The past 25 years has seen greater equality for women in parliament and a recognition that their continued unequal representation in the Liberal Party is a recipe for political failure. The struggle to elevate integrity and to eliminate corruption from politics has some traction, though real action is still lacking. The diversity of the current federal parliament, including substantial Indigenous representation, is a wonder to behold. Many individual politicians are true servants of their communities and a force for good.

My optimism must be tempered, though, by recognition that progress is too slow. Democracy, a fragile flower which must be nourished and defended, is messy and frustrating. We don't learn from history and lack the capacity as a community to address problems like racism, climate change and poverty. Any system ultimately must be judged on how it treats the voiceless and most vulnerable.